2025年4月14日， 新加坡國務資政李顯龍與全國職工總會和工會領袖對話時 指出，美國推行的「美國優先」本質上是零和博弈，美國加征關稅可能迅速引發美自身經濟衰退，同時波及世界其他地區。
以下內容為新加坡眼根據英文翻譯整理：
各位同胞：
晚上好！感謝大家的熱烈歡迎。我今晚並非要發布政策，而是希望與各位展開對話。我很高興能這樣做。我們定期舉行這類交流，尤其在財政預算案公布後。但今晚，我想重點談談當前國際形勢及新加坡的應對之策。
2025財政預算案是未雨綢繆的全面支持
我首先談談財政預算案。2025年財政預算案是新加坡有史以來規模最大的——1430億新元，也是一份全面的預算案，提供人們最需要的支持：
因此，這是一個全面而穩健的一攬子計劃。
財政預算案的慷慨是有原因的。因為我們可以看到國際形勢烏雲密布，風暴正在醞釀，我們想確保能夠未雨綢繆。我們知道中東正在發生什麼。我們可以看到中美緊張局勢。我們可以看到歐洲的不確定性。當然，最近我們都看到了特朗普總統領導下的美國新政府的情況。許多新政策、方法的根本性重新思考，我們不確定會有什麼新的驚喜。因此，我們編制了一份預算，一個一攬子計劃，這就足夠了。如果出了什麼差錯，每個人都會得到照顧。
「解放日」：全球貿易體系的地震
因此，當解放日不是在5月1日而是在4月2日到來時，我們並不感到完全意外。因為特朗普多年來一直非常明確地表示，他想徵收關稅，他想平衡美國的貿易逆差。他從年輕時就相信關稅。他在競選期間曾多次表示，當他上台後，他要對所有人徵收關稅；這是詞彙表中最美麗的字眼。八、九年前，他第一次擔任總統時，就徵收了一些關稅。因此，他要做些什麼並不令人驚訝。但即便如此，「解放日」當天發生的事情也比預想的要激烈得多。事實上，這是全球貿易體系有史以來面臨的最大衝擊。股市暴跌。我認為，甚至美國的債券市場也發生了變化：利率上升，債券價格下跌。
目前，特朗普所謂的 「對等關稅 」被推遲了 90 天。他對中國的智慧型手機、筆記本電腦和晶片提出了一些排除條款。因此，目前還算是緩和。但對所有國家徵收10%的關稅是不容談判的，而且已經生效並發生了。因此，推遲90天聽起來就像是有了90天的緩刑期。但實際上，在這90天裡，被推遲的不僅僅是關稅。因為在這件事懸而未決的情況下，在等待、不確定它是來還是不來的情況下，其他一切都會陷入困境。因為 90 天之後會發生什麼？我們知道，美國政府想要的是消除美國的貿易赤字。他們希望重建美國的製造業，讓就業崗位回歸。他們不僅想全面做到這一點，與整個世界保持平衡，還想逐個國家地做到這一點，不僅同中國，還有日本、加拿大、墨西哥、越南。而不是新加坡。為什麼？因為美國對新加坡有順差--這沒關係。如果美國與新加坡有逆差，我們也會在名單上名列前茅。這就是他們思考問題的方式。
因此，這是一個基本信念，一個非常深刻的動機。特朗普相信這一點，他的團隊也相信這一點。而這些目標將很難實現。因此，我們必須期待他繼續追求這一目標，而當他採取了行動，但這些行動沒有帶來結果時，我認為結論不會是放棄，而是繼續採取更多行動，進一步採取強有力的措施。因此，我們可以預期，隨著時間的推移，美國人將採取進一步的措施。這將對包括新加坡在內的許多國家產生重大影響。因此，我們現在在這裡，已經採取了步驟，步驟還在後面，未來還有更多的不確定性。我們已經不是新政府上任前或 4 月 2 日之前的樣子了。世界正處於一個新階段。
中美關稅戰：沒有贏家
貿易中最大的問題之一以及由這一關稅方案引發的問題是對中美關係的破壞。美國推遲了對其他國家的關稅，但沒有推遲對中國的關稅。中美之間的關稅戰已經打響。第一輪，美國加征 20%，中國以部分產品回應。然後，美國又回來了。與中國來來回回。現在，美國對中國徵收145%的關稅，而中國（你這樣對我，我也這樣對你）對美國進口商品徵收125%的關稅。因此，這已經達到了數字不再重要的程度。可以是100%，可以是200%，也可以是300%。能做成多少生意？可能幾乎沒有，因為這是不可能的，實際貿易幾近停滯。
而且，這還不止於這些關稅項目。它超出了關稅的範圍。例如，中國限制稀土出口。稀土是什麼？它們是製造各種電子設備所需的原材料，而中國是主要出口國。如果不從中國進口，就很難從其他地方進口。因此，中國說：「你這樣做，我會做出回應。我會限制稀土出口。如果你不想讓我賣貨給你，那好吧。我不買你的商品是一回事，但我也會限制好萊塢電影的進口」。電影不是商品，因為電影你只要流過來就可以了，它是服務。但沒關係，我會限制的。我不看迪士尼，我看《哪吒鬧海2》。
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{nextpage}因此，實際上，雙邊貿易將被扼殺。為什麼呢？因為企業做不到。如果關稅是 5%、10%，甚至是15%，好吧，我賣給你，讓我們來談談。你拿 5%，我拿 10%，我們把腰帶勒緊一點--我的利潤少一點，你的成本高一點，好吧，讓我們儘量保持冷靜，繼續下去。但是，當它達到150%、200%，而你不知道明天或後天會發生什麼的時候，你就不能保持冷靜，繼續前進。你必須保持冷靜，然後你可能不得不決定轉行或停業。這意味著整個企業和貿易流動都將停止。
而且，這還不止於貿易，因為如果我在如此嚴重的問題上與你爭吵，我就很難在其他同樣嚴重的問題上與你合作。例如，美國人希望中國在限制芬太尼方面給予合作，因為製造芬太尼的材料來自中國；不知何故，這些材料流向墨西哥和其他地方，被製成芬太尼，然後走私到美國。美國希望中國停止製造易制毒化學品。但中國說，好吧，我為什麼要努力呢？因此，事態將不斷升級，並將對中美關係產生深遠影響。
事實上，這不是一個新問題。這個問題並非始於這位總統。這個問題已存在多年。歐巴馬就任總統後，人們的態度發生了變化。隨著時間的推移，它們變得更加強硬。因此，民主黨人和共和黨人都是如此。我們說美國人是分裂的。但在中國問題上，美國人是團結的。他們有一個強烈的共識，即中國的挑戰既不容小覷又與日俱增（pacing challenge），他們必須非常認真、積極地對待中國。他們非常努力地走在中國前面，防止中國超越他們。與此同時，中國人說："我在成長，我在發展。我要在世界上占據應有的位置。誰能阻止我？因此，這是一個根本矛盾。美國人說：「我要確保你們不會超過我」。中國人說，「我有發展的權利」。我們可以談論雙贏，但當你這樣說時，就存在根本矛盾，而且不會輕易解決。最近的貿易戰更加劇了這一矛盾。這將成為兩國和世介面臨的一個嚴重問題。
那麼，我們該怎麼辦呢？有人說：「不要激動，不要過分誇大這個問題。我們曾經歷過更大的風暴。我們沒有失敗過。我們應該從容應對」。的確，我們不應該激動。我們應該泰然處之。但我們確實需要關注和了解正在發生的事情以及這對我們意味著什麼。因為這一次，有些重要的事情有所不同。
多年來，我們經歷過多次危機。我們經歷過全球金融危機，在此之前還有亞洲金融危機。我們經歷過 SARS。最近，我們又經歷了 COVID-19。世界上每隔一段時間就會發生一些事情，我們都扛了下來，我們必須繃緊神經，渡過難關。每次我們都成功了，所以我們有信心。但有一點很重要，你們必須明白，每次發生這種情況時，有兩件大事對我們有利。第一，在新加坡內部，我們做的是正確的事情。我們可以團結起來。我們可以齊心協力。我們可以採取正確的政策，甚至是痛苦的政策。我們還可以理清體制，理清自己。第二，上次我們每次陷入困境時，新加坡都是全球經濟體系和貿易體系的一部分。這個貿易體系促進了貿易的自由流動和投資的自由流動；它鼓勵跨國公司尋找做生意的地方。我們很有效率。我們做得很好。我們從困境中走出來，又插了回去。我們可以恢復增長、恢復發展、恢復成功。所以，每次遇到困難時，你都會站出來，插上插頭，發展壯大。當下一次遇到困難走出來時，體系仍在。
這是一個全球金融體系，即世貿組織體系。這個體系就是幫助我們的原因。是什麼幫助了我們？它為大小國家提供了一個公平競爭的環境。無論你是大國還是小國，在世貿組織體系下，規則是一樣的，你的准入也是一樣的。我指的是什麼？比方說國與國之間。我們進行貿易，對嗎？有時我們有關稅，有時我們有其他限制。你可以這樣做，但你不能區別對待你的合作夥伴，大的和小的。讓我們舉個例子，如果歐盟對來自日本的汽車提高關稅。為了保護歐洲汽車，你們對日產或豐田汽車提高了關稅，那麼你們就必須對其他國家的汽車收取同樣的關稅；中國汽車、韓國汽車、印度汽車、美國汽車。你必須對它們一視同仁。如果新加坡有汽車出口，新加坡也將被徵收同樣的關稅。
另一方面，如果我們給予一個國家優惠，例如，如果澳大利亞說：「我允許印度大米免稅銷售」，那麼他們就必須對所有其他國家的大米採取同樣的做法： 日本大米、中國大米、越南大米和美國大米。每個國家的大米都必須免稅。這必須是一個公平的競爭環境。你可以保護自己，但不能區別對待你的合作夥伴。這就是所謂的最惠國待遇。聽起來，如果你是最惠國，你就會得到一些特殊的優惠--「最惠國待遇」，但實際上，最惠國待遇只是意味著同等優惠，意味著你不會比別人得到更多，也不會比別人得到更少。無論國家大小，這都是一個公平的競爭環境。但它的意思是，小國的議價能力很弱，因為規則就是這樣，所以我們享有與大國同樣的市場准入，我們從大國的討價還價能力中獲益。因此，我們可以獲得准入，因此我們可以獲得投資，因此我們可以獲得就業機會。因此，最惠國待遇對新加坡至關重要。
這次不同的是，美國不想要最惠國待遇。他們想廢除這一制度。他們想用對等關稅取代最惠國待遇，這意味著我不會平等對待每個人。我想一對一地對待每個人、每個夥伴。我與你交易，你與我交易。你給我什麼，我就給你什麼，至少在原則上是這樣。當然，當你們討價還價時，我希望你們能多給我一點，因此要利用美國的討價還價能力。因為他們是大國--占世界 GDP 的四分之一，占世界貨物貿易總量的七分之一。「為什麼要一視同仁？他們沒有牌"。借用一句名言。我們何不一對一地對待，就像掰手腕一樣。看看誰的肱二頭肌更多，誰的胳膊更有力，我們就會知道誰更強壯。這樣我們會得到更多。這是一個根本不同的世界，也是美國正在尋找和推動的世界。美國的做法不是雙贏，而是雙輸。換句話說，美國只想自己過得好。他們真的不介意其他國家是否為自己做好事。特朗普總統最近公開表示："如果我們達成了真正公平的協議，對美國有利，而不是對其他國家有利，這就是美國優先。現在是美國優先"。
因此，這對新加坡和世界都將產生重大影響。
為什麼中美關稅戰對世界不利？
這對世界意味著什麼？
首先，不同的國家將有不同的規則。小國將遭受損失，因為它們沒有討價還價的能力。但即使是大國也不會好過，因為會有很多混亂、很多不確定性、很多規則差異。貿易、投資和共同做生意的機會也會大大減少。
其次，關稅（不管是平等的還是不平等的），在這種情況下，關稅將變得不平等，將阻礙貿易，提高成本，抑制增長。在 2000 年代，即本世紀初，美國的關稅平均約為1%。因此，基本上只要你能賣到美國，你的貨物就幾乎可以免稅進入美國。但也有一些例外，比如卡車，他們的關稅很高。其他如糖或乙醇，受到限制，因為很敏感，他們要保護農民。但總的來說，只有1%。它們是全球貿易體系的支柱。現在，它們已經達到了約10%，是80年來從未有過的水平。這是非常高的。這比任何其他已開發國家都要高。
如果在 90 天后，其餘的對等關稅將達到30%、40%，有時甚至接近50%，那麼美國的關稅將比戰前、大蕭條時期還要高，當時美國將關稅直接推高。這加劇了美國和世界的大蕭條。此外，這還不是故事的結尾，因為迄今為止，捆綁關稅還沒有將藥品和半導體這兩種產品計算在內。醫藥和半導體產品可能會在短時間內感到高興，但美國已經非常明確地表示，它很快就要來了，馬上就要來了（akan datang）。這可能會對新加坡造成相當大的衝擊，因為製藥和半導體是我國經濟的重要組成部分。因此，這是美國關稅的直接影響。
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{nextpage}但當其他國家進行報復時，你就必須預料到會有來來回回的針鋒相對。這種情況已經發生在中國身上。其他國家也會這樣。然後，它將導致螺旋式下降，影響將更加嚴重。加拿大已經採取了報復行動。歐盟也進行了報復，而且相當謹慎，因為他們有點害怕。他們對哈雷戴維森（Harley-Davidson）採取了行動，因為這是美國的標誌性產品之一。但他們沒有對威士忌和波旁威士忌徵收高關稅。為什麼呢？因為美國人說，「你搞波本，我就搞法國葡萄酒、德國葡萄酒和香檳」。因此，雙方都暫時擱置了--他們可以為此乾杯。但這只是一小項。隨著爭吵的繼續，規模會越來越大，影響也會越來越嚴重。中方已經走到了盡頭。其他國家也會朝著這個方向發展。這將造成巨大傷害。
第四，當你徵收關稅時，我們說：「這將抑制增長，事情會放緩，好處會減少」，這不僅僅是抑制增長。它的破壞性將非常大。如果增長放緩意味著銷量下降、利潤下降、獎金減少；那麼，我勒緊褲腰帶，我仍然有我的工作，我們倆都有。也許隨著時間的推移，我可以去找另一份工作。但是，如果供應鏈中斷，如果你被100%的關稅打擊--中國的公司正在為美國製造聖誕樹過聖誕節；150%的關稅--聖誕節就不會來了。如果新加坡對藥品和半導體徵收這樣的關稅，我們還能過聖誕節嗎？這意味著各行各業都可能受到干擾。企業會被徹底顛覆。你可能會遇到整個商業模式突然消失的情況，不僅僅是不再雇用更多的人，而且你可能會發現自己突然有了大量的剩餘勞動力。如何照顧他們？這可能會很快導致經濟衰退--美國本身的衰退，也會影響到其他地方。這將成為企業和消費者以及全球經濟的負擔。
第五，所有這些新關稅--這將持續很長一段時間。它不會很快消失，因為一旦徵收關稅，一旦保護自己的市場，就很難取消。人們會對此習以為常。一些公司可能會投資。你一旦徵收關稅，你就會說 「來美國投資吧」。所以我在美國投資。這確實沒有競爭力。你想在美國製造聖誕樹，成本很高，到哪裡去找工人？但在你徵收關稅之後，在聖誕樹工廠建立起來之後，你又想取消關稅。工廠說，「我要死了，請幫幫我」。所以，你再也無法挽回了。它就在那裡。它就是現實。此外，如果你撤銷它，反對黨會說：「但你看中國人還在徵收關稅，我為什麼要解除自己的關稅？你必須與他們談判--這又是一個漫長的過程。」
美國人從戰前的高關稅，到2000年關稅降至1%，幾乎為零，這是一個近 80 年的過程，是一個逐步降低關稅的過程。因此，現在如果關稅上升，會持續一段時間。如果你想把它們降回去，我認為這將是一個漫長的過程。它不會消失。因此，這將是一個長期的問題。
關稅戰如何影響新加坡？
對我們有什麼影響？對我們的直接影響是經濟增長。今年，我們希望經濟增長 1%到3%。這也是我們在預算案公布時所宣布的。但是，由於世界上存在各種不確定性，貿工部（MTI）已經修改了預測。他們今天剛剛發布了新的預測；他們將預測值下調至0%至2%。你確定嗎？可能是零嗎？有可能。會是負增長嗎？今年會出現經濟衰退嗎？當我們看到這些數字時，我們不這麼認為，但它有可能發生。而且有可能發生，因為實際上你真的不知道。你看不到消費者是否在訂購，需求是否良好，你的產品是否在改進，每個人是否都在蓬勃發展。如果我持樂觀態度—讓我們先投資。我認為只要我動作快，就一定會有收穫。你不知道的是會有什麼新政策出台。其他國家會怎麼做？然後，美國會如何重新報復？你讓我猜？這是不可能的。因此，不確定性非常高，這是一個問題，短期內的問題。正如我之前所解釋的，從中長期來看也是如此。因此，我們必須預計今年的增長率會下降，未來某個地方會出現衰退，也許不是今年，但很可能在某個時候。從中期來看，5 年、10 年內，我們所處的世界將變得不那麼友好。
因此，這次危機與以往危機的不同之處在於：以前，你可以走出來，走進一個正在運轉的世界，我們融入其中，我們再次運轉。這一次，我們沒事，但世界不會沒事，我們必須盡最大努力確保在這個不那麼友好的世界裡照顧好自己。
這只是經濟方面。在地緣政治方面，我今晚不想多談，但你們知道中美關係。我們知道貿易戰將導致問題惡化。因此，我們必須預料到中美關係更加緊張，從而導致一個不那麼平靜、不那麼穩定的地區。我們將需要更加努力工作，與雙方成為朋友，並在不陷入困境的情況下找到自己的發展道路。
我認為，對新加坡來說，這意味著一些非常嚴重的影響。這次與以往不同，我們必須明白這一點，同時也要思考我們能做些什麼。
那麼，我們能做些什麼呢？我認為有兩個方面需要考慮--一個是國際方面，另一個是國內方面。
新加坡的對策--國際層面
國際方面--我認為我們必須繼續支持自由貿易、多邊主義和世貿組織。即使美國放棄了這些規則，我們也要努力維持這個體系，不讓它崩潰。美國是最大的經濟體。他們的退出會對世界其他國家產生重大影響。但世界其他國家仍然在那裡，如果我們能一起努力，我認為我們有公平的機會來維持這個體系。
我舉例說明如何做到這一點。你們一定聽說過 TPP（跨太平洋夥伴關係協定）。你們不需要知道細節，但基本上，12 個國家聚集在一起談判自由貿易協定。新加坡在一開始就參與了這一進程。其中一個國家是美國。事實上，歐巴馬總統非常積極地推動談判，並試圖就 TPP 達成協議，他成功了。但最後一步是讓國會批准該協議，然後美國就加入了。他做不到這一點。他把這件事留給了繼任者。他希望是希拉蕊。希拉蕊說，「不，我拒絕接受」，儘管她也參與其中。總之，希拉蕊輸了，特朗普先生贏了。特朗普先生曾說：「如果我上台，我會在第一天就大開殺戒」。當他在2017年1月20日宣誓就職時，在第一天，他就扼殺了 TPP。但幸運的是，TPP並沒有死亡，因為除了美國之外，還有11個成員。日本仍然在那裡，安倍晉三先生是日本首相。他發揮了領導作用，團結了其他國家，重新談判了協議，排除了我們遷就美國利益的所有部分，保留了協議的其他部分。他還召集了其他 11 個國家，我們都簽署了協議，並得到了足夠的批准。
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{nextpage}我們現在有了《全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（CPTPP）。美國離開了，遊戲仍然可以繼續。同樣，在全球貿易體系中，美國不想再按規則行事。但其他國家，如果我們能在相互貿易的過程中維持這個體系，我認為這很重要，這對新加坡這樣的國家非常有價值。因此，我們將與其他國家合作，努力實現這一目標。這是我們能做的第一件事。
我們能做的第二件事是促進與志同道合的夥伴達成貿易安排。例如，我們有東協(ASEAN)集團。我們有東協自由貿易協定。歐盟是我們的主要合作夥伴，我們可以與歐盟做生意。東協可以與歐盟簽訂自由貿易協定，與他們進行談判，擴大自由貿易的墨跡（ ink blot for free trade）。為我們彼此合作共贏創造更多途徑。新加坡正在推動這項工作。事實上，東協貿易部長們已經召開了會議，我認為他們也將在這方面開展工作，並與其他夥伴合作。
《 全面與進步跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（ CPTPP）很有價值，也可以繼續發展。英國加入了 CPTPP。他們需要--因為他們脫歐了，沒有合作夥伴，沒得選擇。英國加入了，但我們歡迎他們。但歐盟在四處尋找合作夥伴時說：「歐盟和 CPTPP 合作如何？一個在亞太地區，包括加拿大、墨西哥、秘魯和智利，另一個在歐洲。我們可以一起做些有價值的事情」。CPTPP 成員很熱衷，歐盟委員會主席馮德萊恩也很熱衷。我希望，如果我們能推動這一進程，我們就能有所收穫。在這種情況下，你需要動力。如果你坐視不管，就會出事。如果你站起來推動一些事情，你可能會取得更多的進展，也可能會取得較少的進展，但你會取得一些進展，你會比現在更好。這是我們需要取得進展的領域，新加坡將幫助推動。
第三，在外部，我們需要在東協內部與東協夥伴開展更多合作。正如我所說的，我們已經簽訂了自貿協定，但我們還可以做得更多。我希望，有了這種額外的動力，我們可以做得更多。例如，新加坡和馬來西亞正在討論柔佛-新加坡經濟特區（Johor-Singapore SEZ）。在柔佛，公司可以去那裡，他們可以享受優惠條件，新加坡公司也可以繁榮發展。馬來西亞的企業將從中受益，馬來西亞將從中受益，外國公司可以在柔佛和新加坡，因此他們也可以從中受益。在這個過程中，新加坡和馬來西亞的合作會更加緊密，這很好。當時，印尼報紙上有報道說，「新加坡和馬來西亞在搞經濟特區，新加坡和印尼在搞什麼？」答案是，我們正在與印尼合作，但我認為存在一定程度的競爭，因為他們認為我們能夠增加價值。我希望在東協內部的壓力下，我們能做得更多。因此，在國際上，在全球範圍內，在世界貿易組織（WTO）方面--努力保持該體系的完整性。貿易集團之間的大夥伴可以走到一起，形成更大的集團。在東協內部，努力使東協更強大、更相關。新加坡是個小國，但我們的貿易額並不小。我認為我們可以做出一些貢獻。
新加坡的對策 - 國內層面
我們必須在國內應對新形勢。我將從三個方面來說。第一是實際支持，第二是心理準備，第三是政治支持。在實際支持方面，我們需要幫助家庭，幫助企業，保持經濟增長。要幫助家庭，我想大家都知道我們有很多事情要做。生活費用當然是第一大項。今年，一般家庭將獲得約4000新元的各種形式的援助。我們正在幫助被解僱的工人，比如求職者支持計劃。我們在設計這項計劃時預計到會出現混亂，預計到人們會流離失所，而這正是我們所需要的，如果關稅真的使供應鏈混亂，使我們的產業受到嚴重破壞的話。被淘汰的工人將獲得求職者支持計劃的支持，以渡過失業、尋找新工作或接受新工作培訓的時期。我們將為再技能培訓提供支持。我剛才談到了這一點。總之，我想說，我們的預算方案目前已經足夠，但如果情況變得更糟，我們會做得更多，我可以向你們保證，我們有能力做得更多。
我們也必須幫助企業。我們在副總理顏金勇的領導下成立了經濟韌性小組（ Economic Resilience Taskforce ），以應對不確定因素；並幫助企業轉型。因此，這不僅是為了應對眼前的問題，也是為了應對更長遠的問題。我們要抓住眼前挑戰的機會，為提高長遠競爭力做好準備。全國職工總會將參與這個特別小組，研究如何以最佳方式支持工人渡過難關。
其次，我認為我們需要做好心理準備。我們需要為一個更加動盪的世界做好準備。你必須知道壞的環境即將來臨。但與此同時，我們可以感到欣慰的是，其他國家也面臨著類似的挑戰，而新加坡比大多數國家更有能力應對這一挑戰。因為我們有計劃、有決心、有經驗、有資源、有團結。我們已經做好準備，齊心協力應對挑戰。
如果我們要共渡難關，我們必須做的重要事情之一，就是審視我們社會中的斷層、壓力和緊張。因為如果你想說 「讓我們團結起來」，那就不僅僅是穿同一件 T恤，而是要確保我們互相照顧，互相關心。確保在出現斷層時，遇到更大困難的人們、可能被拋在後面的人們、流離失所的人們不會感到被冷落，不會感到孤獨。他們知道別人關心他們，新加坡關心他們。我們會幫助你們，你們幫助自己，我們一起努力。我們同舟共濟。我認為這是我們在危機中必須具備的一種非常重要的心態，我們能夠做到這一點。
在美國，這個問題導致了壓力、怨氣和不滿，導致了政府推行所有這些非常激烈的政策。因為美國的某些地區已經被拋在後面，這些地區的工業發展都非常糟糕。他們稱之為 「鐵鏽地帶」。這些地方的工業都做得很差，工人沒有工作，人民被遺棄。美國的藍領工人，他們在全國各地的工作都不好做，收入也不高。他們的生活因毒品、失業和犯罪而黯然失色。他們被拋在後面，他們投票要求徹底改變，他們想要打破體制，他們想要一個不同的世界。
我們決不能讓我們的民眾或部分民眾有這種感覺。我們也會有壓力和緊張，因為如果其他地方經濟衰退，就會出現裁員，如果供應線中斷，就會出現失調。如果技術出現而我們沒有做好準備，也會出現失調。如果人工智慧來了，如果機器人技術大規模出現，而你的工作被剝奪或改變，你無法勝任新的工作，你就失業了。迄今為止，我們一直在防止這種情況在新加坡發生。我認為，在這種情況下，我們必須加倍努力，確保這種情況不會發生。
如果你能做到所有這些，照顧好家庭、照顧好物質需求、確保我們做好心理準備—那麼我們也能解決政治問題，那就是作為一個新加坡團隊團結起來，與政府密切合作。你需要有一個好的政府，一個有效的政府，一個強大的政府，才能照顧好新加坡。新加坡必須在國內強大，才能在國際上強大。
讓我來解釋一下。我認為，當你說在外交政策上，新加坡必須用一個聲音說話時，我想每個人都會同意。即使是反對黨也會同意。當你以國會代表團的形式出訪海外時，來自不同黨派的人，我們加入同一個國會代表團，代表新加坡出訪。但反對黨更進一步。他們說，在海外，我們團結一致。在國內，我們來挑戰。現在，這是一個問題。為什麼會有問題呢？我告訴你們，我參加國際會議已經有20多年了—事實上，已經有30年、40年了，但最近20年是以總理身份參加。現在，幸運的是，黃循財總理正在做這件事。不過，讓我告訴你們我參加這些會議的經驗。我們經常見面，因為這些會議每年或每隔一年舉行一次。這次我見到你，也許下次我就能見到你的繼任者。在有些國家，我每次去參加會議，都會見到新總理。有時，我看到首相，看到他的代表團，看到那裡的一些面孔，看到報紙，我就知道其中有些人希望成為下一任首相。有時結果也是如此。因此，當你們見面時，我會評估你，你也會評估我。我會問自己：「我現在在和你說話。總理閣下，是的，先生。」 五年後你還會在這裡嗎？五年後您的政策還會繼續嗎？我可以和你做生意嗎？ 我可以和你們做生意，承諾並做一些事情，制定一個計劃嗎？建一座工廠可能需要兩三年時間。工廠的盈虧平衡可能需要10年或20年。如果你不在這裡，我能做筆交易嗎？所以我評估他們。你覺得他們會評估我嗎？當然會！他們會看到發生了什麼。他們會讓大使館在這裡寫報告。如果你在新加坡有不同的意見，大使館就會說，這位總理的演講很精彩，但實際上他在國內有很多政治問題。當你見到他們時，你會受到禮遇，但我認為他們沒有同樣的分量，你將無法在這個國家捍衛和推進新加坡的利益。
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{nextpage}另一方面，如果他們知道你對國內的情況了如指掌，如果他們知道你有強大的支持，良好的支持，他們知道你與民眾保持聯繫，你已經很好地控制了國內問題，那麼他們就會認真對待你。事實上，他們會問你：「對了，我聽說你們的醫療保健系統還不錯，告訴我你們是怎麼做的。」 或者，我也遇到過一次這樣的情況，我們正在討論腐敗問題。那是我作為總理第一次參加亞太經合組織會議的初期，其中一個大國對我說：「新加坡，告訴我們你們是如何打擊腐敗的。」 他們知道我們。他們想知道我們是如何工作的。這有很大的不同。
因此，要想在國際上有成效，強大，就必須國內團結一致。當人們說，新加坡是一個安全的避風港。在一個不確定的世界裡，在新加坡，你有保障，你有安全。這就是為什麼人們要在這裡設立家族辦公室。這就是為什麼人們願意在這裡存錢。這就是為什麼人們有信心把價值數十億美元的工廠放在這裡，而這些工廠需要20 年、30年才能收回成本，因為新加坡是一個安全的避風港。而避風港的一個重要部分，一個重要因素，就是穩定的政治，良好的政治。
我知道許多新加坡人希望有更多的反對黨，如果你問為什麼，他們會說，我們希望對人民行動黨有更有力的制衡。我想說的是，反對黨在我們的民主制度中扮演著重要角色。它將繼續存在。反對黨議員永遠不會從國會中消失。我接受這一點。這就是民主制度的運作方式。我們一開始的處境很不尋常，國會中人民行動黨幾乎占壓倒性多數，反對黨幾乎為零。我認為這種情況永遠不會改變，我們將與之合作。
但是，新加坡也需要一個有效的政府體系，由一個優秀和有能力的執政黨領導，而這取決於選舉能否帶來對新加坡有利的結果。什麼是對新加坡有利的結果？那就是在選舉之後，國家能夠產生一個有能力、有決心、誠實的領導層，能夠管理一個有能力、高效率、有成效的政府。捍衛我們在世界上的地位，帶領新加坡安全度過危機。
這就是選舉的最終目的；選擇誰來領導國家，並確保能夠領導國家的團隊能夠出色地完成任務。事實上，最理想的是能夠最成功、最有效地領導國家的團隊。這個制度的一部分就是執政黨和反對黨。有執政黨議員，也有反對黨議員。但是，如果選民不斷選出更多的反對黨議員，即使政府的工作做得很好，那麼在某種程度上，這一定會削弱政府的執政能力，削弱政府為新加坡組建最佳團隊的能力，削弱政府按照新加坡人所期望的方式管理國家的能力。必須如此。有人說，公務員制度很了不起，你不需要一個好部長。任何人都可以成為部長。常務秘書會做這些工作，你只需坐在那裡說 「是 」或 「不是」。這就好比說你不需要一個好的部長；工會很好，部長只需坐在那裡說 「一切都很好」。真的是這樣嗎？你在企業工作時，企業是這樣運作的嗎？如果你看到一家企業的老闆這樣做，你認為優秀的人還會留在這家企業嗎？或者他們會說：「這個地方沒有希望，還是去為更好的老闆工作吧」。要管理好一個團隊，你需要一個好的領導者。如果沒有一個好的領導者，一個好的團隊就會消失。我們需要有這樣的領導，這樣的素質，新加坡才能取得成功。
我給你們舉個例子—2020 年大選，正值COVID-19 期間。當 COVID-19 出現時，我們距離選舉還有一年左右的時間。但當大流行開始變得嚴重時，我決定在可行的情況下儘快舉行選舉。有些人說，「不，儘可能推遲」。甚至宣布緊急狀態，推遲到 COVID-19 之後。我說：「不，你現在就去」。斷路器是沒辦法的事--我們必須解決眼前的問題。處理完之後，我說：「讓我們提前舉行一次大選，選出一個擁有全新授權的新團隊。我們將面臨許多挑戰。我們將不得不做出許多艱難的決定。人們將經歷許多混亂和困難。我們必須集中精力對抗COVID-19，如果我每天都想制定新的COVID-19政策，卻不得不問自己，我應該在選舉前還是選舉後這樣做，那我們就無法做到這一點。新加坡人會死的，真的。因此，我們大選了，我們得到了很好的授權，此後，我們集中精力作為一個國家與 COVID-19 作鬥爭，我很欣慰地說，我們並沒有失敗。這是因為我們能夠團結起來，將我們的團隊凝聚在一起，能夠集中精力解決問題。」
2020年大選取得了一個很好的結果，但不幸的是，我們失去了盛港選區，在這個過程中，我們失去了黃志明兄弟作為候選人。這是工運的一個挫折。但幸運的是，黃志明兄弟有毅力和魄力繼續擔任秘書長，幸運的是工運繼續支持他。工運還支持團隊中的其他領導人--人民行動黨國會議員：王志豪（Heng Chee How）、陳國明（Desmond Tan）、鄭德源（Patrick Tay）、朱倍慶（Desmond Choo），以及堅定的工會領導人，如Thana姐妹、Mary姐妹，以及職總中央委員會和工會中的許多其他人。
因此，在大流行病期間，工運領導有方，可以成為政府的好夥伴，並發揮了關鍵作用。它挽救了工作崗位，推動了技能提升。它管理著自僱人士收入補貼計劃（SIRS）。因此，它不僅幫助工會會員或可談判的雇員，還幫助新加坡的工人，包括自僱人士。此外，它還將目光投向了大流行病之外，成立了企業培訓委員會（CTCs），以支持企業提高技能。結果證明，這是一個非常成功的項目。因此，在今年的預算中，我們又投入了2 億新元的支持，因為你們的錢已經用完了。但我們很高興，因為它超額完成了你們的計劃，是一個很好的項目，所以我們會支持它，做得更多。
因此，全國職工總會能夠幫助我們從 COVID-19 中走出來並強勁反彈。這就是三方合作的含義——政府、工會、僱主攜手合作。事實上，這就是人民行動黨和全國職工總會之間的共生關係所能為工人和新加坡帶來的好處。這也是黃循財總理和他的4G團隊致力於加強三方合作和共生夥伴關係的原因。我期待你們在下屆大選中支持這個團隊。尤其是支持團隊中的工運領袖和人民行動黨工會顧問。
結束語
今晚的演講或許令人不安，但我認為我有責任來到這裡，直接、坦率、誠實地與你們交談，與你們分享事情的真相。
這是我在從政之初學到的一課，當時我剛剛成為部長，我們正在應對經濟衰退，1985年的嚴重經濟危機，我們不得不削減公積金，僱主公積金削減了15個百分點。你們有些上了年紀的人會記得那是一個多麼令人震驚和艱難的決定。但我們能夠堅持下來，因為當時工會會員對他們的領導人充滿信心。王鼎昌兄弟是當時的秘書長。政府部長們--王鼎昌本人、我、吳作棟、時任副部長的林文興--我們親自前往工會，與工會領袖交談，與工人交談，一次又一次，讓他們了解利害關係，讓他們支持能讓我們擺脫困境的政策。幸運的是，他們相信了我們。他們信任我們。他們接受了建議，接受了治療，新加坡的恢復速度比預期的要快得多。因此，每當我遇到這樣的危機或這樣的情況時，我的第一反應就是：「讓我們談談，了解這是怎麼回事。我們能一起做些什麼？如何擺脫困境，而不是越陷越深」。因此，我認為我們可以滿懷信心地投入戰鬥。我們有資源，我們有經驗--我們已經準備好了。我們曾經做到過，我們將向世界證明，我們可以再次做到。
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{nextpage}即將到來的大選至關重要。這是一個變化了的世界。我們有一個新的團隊掌權，我們將有新的決心應對挑戰，並變得更加強大。
黃循財總理首次帶領人民行動黨參加選舉，尋求自己的使命，帶領新加坡向前邁進--渡過危機，實施計劃，開創未來。
我希望新加坡人了解正在發生什麼，什麼事關重大，以及我們必須做些什麼來共同確保我們的未來。謝謝大家。
以下內容為英文原稿：
Transcript of speech by Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong at the dialogue with NTUC and union leaders on 14 April 2025.
Good evening brothers and sisters. Thank you for the very, very warm welcome. I did not come to make an announcement; I came to do a dialogue with everybody. I am very glad to do this. We hold these regularly, particularly after Budgets. But tonight, I would like to talk more about what is happening in the world; and what we need to do as a country.
I will start with the Budget. Budget 2025 was the record budget for Singapore. Biggest ever – $143 billion – and it was a comprehensive budget which delivered support where it was most needed. Support for the cost of living, which is very much on people’s minds – CDC vouchers for households, U-Save and S&CC rebates, LifeSG credits for children, and this year being SG60 year, SG60 Vouchers for every adult, $600, or if you have enough white hair, $800. For workers we have enhancements to skills upgrading. SkillsFuture Level-Up Programme, more comprehensive training allowance, and also allowances to help you defray your expenses, even for people on part-time programmes. We have support for businesses and SMEs. Cost relief through grants and rebates, support for the companies to upskill their workforces. And we invested in our growth engines – AI, infrastructure, and in clean energy, for example Climate Vouchers to buy more energy efficient air-conditioners, washing machines, ovens, what have you. So, it was a comprehensive and robust package.
And it was generous for a reason. Because we could see clouds on the horizon. Because we could see that storms were brewing and we wanted to make sure that we were prepared for unexpected things which would happen. We knew what was going on in the Middle East. We could see US-China tensions. We could see the uncertainties in Europe. And most recently of course we could all see what was happening with the new administration in the US under President Trump. Many new policies, fundamental re-thinking of approaches, and we were not sure what new surprises we would expect. And therefore, we prepared a budget, a package, which would be enough. If something goes not quite right, everybody is looked after.
Liberation Day
So, when Liberation Day came, not on the 1st of May, but on the 2nd of April, that was not a complete surprise to us. Because Trump had signalled very clearly, and over many years, that he wanted to do tariffs and he wanted to equalise America’s trade deficit. He believed in tariffs since he was a young man. He had said during this campaign repeatedly that when he comes in, he was going to put tariffs on everybody; it was the most beautiful word in the vocabulary. The first time he was President, eight, nine years ago, he had imposed some tariffs. So, that he was going to do something was not a surprise. But even then, what happened on Liberation Day was more drastic than expected. In fact, it is the biggest shock that the global trading system has ever faced. The stock markets plunged. I think even the bond markets moved in America – interest rates went up, bond prices came down.
For now, there is a 90-day postponement on what Trump calls the "reciprocal tariffs". He has put in some exclusions for Chinese smartphones, laptops, and chips. And so for the time-being, there is a reprieve. But tariffs on all the countries – 10% – that is non-negotiable, and that is in force and happened already. So postponing 90 days sounds like you have got 90 days of reprieve. But actually, during this 90 days, it is not just the tariffs which have been postponed. Because with this thing hanging over you, waiting, not sure if it is going to come or not come, everything else goes into limbo. Because what happens after 90 days? We know that what the US administration wants, is to eliminate the US trade deficit. They want to rebuild manufacturing in the US, bring the jobs back. And they want to do this not only across the board, to balance with the whole world, but they want to do this country-by-country – with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam. Not with Singapore. Why? Because America has a surplus with Singapore - that is all right. If America has a deficit with Singapore, we will be there, high on the list too. It is the way they are thinking about their problems.
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{nextpage}So this is the fundamental belief, a very deep motivation. Trump believes it, his team believes it. And these are goals which are going to be very difficult to achieve. So, we must expect him to continue to pursue this objective, and when he makes moves but the moves have not delivered results, I think the conclusion will not be to leave off, but to continue to do more moves and to take further strong measures. So we can expect to see further steps taken by the Americans over time. And that is going to have very major consequences for many countries, including Singapore. So we are here now, steps have been taken, steps yet to come, more uncertainties to come. We are not where we were before this new Administration took office, or before the 2nd of April. The world is in a new phase.
US-China
One of the biggest problems in trade and arising from this tariff package is the damage to US-China relations. America has postponed the tariffs against other countries but has not postponed against China. The tariff war between America and China has already begun. First round, America put 20% on, China responded with selected products. Then America came back again. Went back and forth with China. Now US levies on China are 145% and the Chinese – you do this to me, I do this to you – The Chinese do to US imports, US sales to China, 125%. So, it has reached the level where the number does not matter anymore. It can be 100%, it can be 200%, it can be 300%. How much business is going to be done? Probably, almost none, because it is impossible.
And it does not stop with such tariff items. It goes beyond tariffs. For example, China has restricted rare earth exports. What are rare earths? They are raw materials which you need to make all kinds of electronics equipment, and China is a major exporter. If you do not get it from China, it is very difficult to get it from other places. So China says, 「You do this to me, I will respond. I will restrict rare earth exports. And if you do not want me to sell you goods, okay. I will not buy your goods is one thing, but I will also restrict imports of Hollywood films.」 Films are not goods, because films you just stream over, it is services. But never mind, I will restrict that. I will not watch Disney, I will watch Ne Zha 2.
So effectively, the bilateral trade is going to get killed. And why? Because the businesses just cannot do it. If the tariff is five percent, 10%, maybe even 15%, okay I am selling it to you, let’s cham siong. You take 5%, I take 10%, we squeeze our belts a little bit – my profit a bit less, your cost a bit higher, okay, let us try to stay calm and carry on. But when it is 150%, 200%, and you do not know what is going to happen tomorrow or day after, then you cannot stay calm and carry on. You must stay calm, and then you may have to decide to go into a different business or to go out of business. And that means entire businesses and trade flows are going to stop.
And it would not end with trade, because if I am quarrelling with you on such a serious matter, it is very difficult for me to cooperate with you on other equally serious things. So, for example, the Americans want China to cooperate on restricting fentanyl, because the materials to make fentanyl come from China; somehow they go to Mexico and other places, they are made into fentanyl, then smuggled into the US. And America wants China to stop making the precursor chemicals. But China says, well, why should I try very hard? So this is going to escalate, and there will be far reaching consequences for US-China relations.
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{nextpage}This is not a new problem, actually. It is not a problem which started with this President. It is a problem which has been growing for quite a number of years. The attitudes changed when Obama became President. Over time, they hardened. So it is Democrats as well as Republicans. We say that the Americans are divided. But on China, the Americans are united. They have a strong consensus that China is a pacing challenge, and they have to take China very seriously and actively. They are trying very hard to stay ahead of China and to prevent China from overtaking them. At the same time, the Chinese say, "I am growing, I am developing. I want to take my rightful place in the world. Who is going to stop me?" So, this is a fundamental contradiction. The Americans say, "I want to make sure that you do not overtake me". The Chinese say, "I have a right to develop". We can talk about win-win, but when you cast it like that, there is a fundamental contradiction, and it is not going to be easily resolved. The latest trade war has worsened it. And it is going to be a serious problem for the two countries and also for the world.
So what do we do about it? Some people say, "Do not get excited, do not overblow the issue. We have weathered bigger storms before. We have not failed. We should take these events in our own stride." And it is true, we should not get excited. We should take it in our own stride. But we do need to be concerned and to understand what is happening and what this means for us. Because this time, something important is different.
We have gone through many crises before over the years. We have gone through the Global Financial Crisis, before that, Asian financial crisis. We had SARS. Most recently, we have had COVID-19. And every now and again something happens in the world, we have carried along, and we have to batten down our hatches and see it through. And every time we have succeeded, so we have confidence. But one important thing which you must understand is that every time that happened, we had two big things going in our favour. One, within Singapore, we were doing the right thing. We could get united. We could get our act together. We could respond with the right policies, even painful ones. And we could get the system, get ourselves sorted out. Two, every time we got into trouble last time, Singapore was part of a working global economic system, trading system. And that trading system promoted free flow of trade, free flow of investments; it encouraged MNCs to look for places to do business. We were efficient. We were doing well. We came out from trouble, we plugged back in. We could resume growing, resume developing, resume succeeding. So every time you run into trouble, you come up, you plug it, you grow it. Next time there is trouble, you come out, the system is still there.
It is a global financial system, the WTO system. And that was what helped us. What was it about that system which helped us? It gave countries big and small a level playing field. Whether you are a big country or a small country, under the WTO system, the rules are the same, your access is the same. What do I mean? Let's say between countries. We trade, right? Sometimes we have tariffs, sometimes we have other restrictions. You are allowed to do that, but you may not discriminate between your partners, big ones and small ones. Let us take an example, if the EU raises tariffs on cars from Japan. In order to protect European cars, you raise tariffs on Nissan or Toyota, then you must charge the same tariff on cars from every other country; Chinese cars, Korean cars, Indian cars, American cars. You have to treat them the same. If Singapore had cars to export, Singapore would also be charged the same tariffs.
On the other hand, if we give a concession to a country – for example, if Australia says, 「I allow rice from India to be sold duty-free」, then they have to do the same for rice from all other countries: Japanese rice, Chinese rice, Vietnamese rice, and American rice. Everybody has to come in also duty-free. It has to be a level playing field. You can protect yourself, but you cannot discriminate between your partners. And that is called MFN - Most Favoured Nation. It sounds like if you are MFN, that you get some special favour – 「most favoured」 – but actually most favoured just means equal favour, means you do not get more than anybody else, and you do not get less than anybody else. And it is a level playing field for countries big and small. But what it means is that for small countries, who have very little bargaining power, because the rules are like that, so we enjoy the same market access which big countries enjoy, and we benefit from the bargaining power of bigger countries. And therefore, we can get access, and therefore we can get investments, and therefore we can get jobs. So, MFN is critical to Singapore.
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{nextpage}What is different this time is that the US does not want MFN. They want to dismantle the system. They want to replace MFN with reciprocal tariffs, meaning I would not treat everybody equally. I want to treat each person, each partner, one-on-one. I deal with you, you deal with me. What you give me, I give you, at least in principle. When you bargain, of course, I would like you to give me a little bit more, and therefore, exploit America's bargaining power. Because they are big – one quarter of the world’s GDP, one seventh of total goods trade in the world. 「Why treat everybody equally? They do not have the cards.」 To borrow some famous words. Why not we treat this one-on-one, like arm wrestling. Let's see who has got more biceps, who has got a stronger arm, and we will see who is stronger. We will get more that way. It is a fundamentally different kind of world which the US is looking for and pushing for. And the approach is not win-win, but win-lose. In other words, the US wants to do well for themselves. They really do not mind whether the other countries do well for themselves. And President Trump recently is on record saying, 「If we had made a really fair deal and a good deal for the United States, not a good deal for the others, this is America first. It is now America first.」
So this has very major implications for Singapore, very major implications for the world.
Why this is bad for the world
What does it mean for the world?
First, you are going to have different rules for different countries. Small countries will suffer because they have no bargaining power. But even big countries will not do well because there is going to be a lot of confusion, a lot of uncertainties, a lot of differences in the rules. And far fewer opportunities to trade, to invest, to do business together.
Second, the tariffs – whether they are equal or unequal – and in this case, they will become unequal – will choke off trade, will raise costs, and will dampen growth. In the 2000s, at the beginning of the millennium, the US tariffs were on average at about one percent. So basically, if you can sell to the US, your goods can enter the US almost duty-free. There are some exceptions like trucks – they charge a lot. Other things like sugar, where they are restricted, they are sensitive – they have farmers to protect – or ethanol. But across the board, one percent. They were the anchor of the global trading system. Now, already they are at about 10%, at a level which has not been there for 80 years. It is very high. It is higher than any other developed country.
And if in 90 days』 time, the rest of the reciprocal tariffs come in and they go to 30, 40, or sometimes nearly 50%, then the US tariffs will be even higher than they were before the war, during the Great Depression, when the US pushed the tariffs right up. And that worsened the Depression for the US and for the world. Furthermore, this is not the end of the story, because tariffs in the bundle so far have not counted two products – pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may have been feeling happy for a short while, but America has made it very clear it is coming soon, akan datang. And that will potentially hit Singapore quite hard, because pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are a significant part of our economy. So that is from the immediate impact of the American tariffs.
But when other countries retaliate, then you must expect back and forth, tit-for-tat. It has happened with China. It will happen with other countries. Then it will cause a downward spiral and the impact will be even worse. Canada has already retaliated. The EU has also retaliated, quite carefully, because they are a bit fearful. They have done Harley-Davidson, because that is one of the iconic American products. But they have not put high tariffs on whiskey, bourbon. Why? Because the Americans say, 「You do bourbon, I am going to hit French wine, German wine, champagne」. So both sides have held off for now – they can drink to that. But that is a small item. As the quarrel goes on, it will grow bigger, and the impact will be worse. And the Chinese side has gone right to the end. And with the other countries you can head in that direction too. And that will do a lot of harm.
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{nextpage}Fourth, when you have tariffs and we say, "Well that is going to dampen growth and things are going to slow down and there will be fewer upsides", it is not just dampening growth. It is going to be very disruptive. If dampened growth means volume goes down, profits go down, maybe bonuses go down; well, I tighten my belt, I still got my job, both of us. Maybe over time, I can go and find another job. But if the supply chains are disrupted, if you get hit by 100% tariffs – companies in China are making Christmas trees for America for Christmas; 150% tariff – Christmas is not going to come. If you have got such a tariff on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors in Singapore, are we going to have Christmas or not? What it means is that industries can be disrupted. Businesses can be totally turned upside down. You may have the whole business model suddenly disappear and not just not hiring more people, but you may find yourself all of a sudden with a lot of surplus workers. How to look after them? And that can very quickly lead to recession – recession in the US itself, and impact elsewhere too. This is going to be a burden on businesses and consumers, on the global economy.
Fifth, with all these new tariffs – this is something which is going to last a very long time. It is not going to go away soon, because once you put in a tariff, once you protect your market, it is very difficult to take it away. People get used to it. Some companies may invest. You put in a tariff, you say, "Come invest in America". So I invest in America. It is really not competitive. You want to build Christmas trees in the US – it is very expensive, where to find workers? But after you have got the tariff and after the Christmas tree factory has come up, then you want to undo it. The factory says, 「I am going to die, please help me". So you cannot undo it anymore. It is there. It is a reality. And furthermore, if you undo it, the party in opposition will say "But you see the Chinese have their tariffs still on, why am I disarming myself?」 You have to negotiate with them – a further long process.
To go from where the Americans were, before the war, when they had high tariffs, to where they were by 2000 when the tariffs were one percent, nearly zero, that was a nearly 80-year process, gradually bringing things down. So now, if the tariffs go up, they stay up for a while. If you want to bring them back down, I think that is going to be a long process. It is not going to disappear. So that is going to be a long problem.
Impact on us, Singapore?
What is the impact on us? Immediately, the impact on us is – growth. This year, we were hoping for one to three percent growth. That was what we announced around Budget time. But with all this uncertainty in the world, MTI has revised the forecast. They have just put up the new forecast today; they put it down to zero to two percent. Do you know for sure? No. Could it be zero? Possible. Can it be negative? Will we have a recession this year? When we look at the numbers, we do not think so, but it could happen. And it could happen because, actually, you really do not know. You are not looking at whether consumers are ordering, whether demand is good, whether your product is improving, whether everyone is prospering. If I take an optimistic view – let's invest first. I think if I am fast, I will get something. What you do not know is what new policies are going to come. What are other countries going to do? Then, how will America re-retaliate? And you ask me to guess? It is impossible. So the uncertainty is very high, and is a problem, a problem in the short term. And as I explained earlier, in the medium to long term. So we must expect lower growth this year, a recession somewhere down the road, maybe not this year, but quite possibly at some point. And over the medium term, 5, 10 years, this is going to be a less friendly world that we are in.
So the difference between this time and previous crises is: previously you come out, you can come out into a world which is working and we fit in, we work again. This time, we are okay, but the world is not going to be okay, and we have to do our best to make sure that we look after ourselves in this much less hospitable world.
That is just on the economic side. On the geopolitical side, I do not want to go and talk a lot about it tonight, but you know about US-China. We know about the problems which are going to be worsened because of the trade war. So we must expect more US-China tensions, and therefore a less tranquil, less stable region. There will be more demands on us to work very hard, to be friends with both, and to find our own way forward without getting into trouble.
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{nextpage}I think for Singapore, it means some very serious implications. This time is different, and we have to understand that, even as we think what we can do about it.
So, what can we do about it? I think there are two areas where you have to think about – one internationally and the other one domestically.
Singapore’s response – International
Internationally – I think we have to continue to support free trade, multilateralism, the WTO. To try to keep the system going and not have it collapse, even though the US is abandoning the rules. The US is the biggest economy. They come out, it has a significant impact on the rest of the world. But the rest of the world is still there, and if we can work together, I think we have a fair shot at keeping the system up.
I give you an example of how this can be done. You will have heard of the TPP – the Trans-Pacific Partnership. You do not need to know the details, but basically, 12 countries got together to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement. Singapore had some part to play, to get this process started right at the beginning. One of those countries was the US. In fact, President Obama was very active in pushing the negotiations and trying to get a deal on the TPP, and he succeeded. But the last step was to get the deal ratified in Congress, then America is in. He could not do that. He left it to his successor. He hoped that it would be Hillary. Hillary said, 「No, I repudiate this」, although she was also involved. And anyway, Hillary lost, and Mr Trump won. And Mr Trump had said, 「If I come in, I'm going to kill it on Day One」. When he was sworn in on the 20th of January, 2017, on day one, he killed the TPP. But fortunately, the TPP did not die, because there were still 11 members, other than the US. Japan was still there, and Mr Shinzo Abe was Prime Minister of Japan. He exercised leadership, he rallied the other countries, he renegotiated the deal so as to exclude all the parts where we had accommodated American interests, and saved the rest of the deal. And he got the other 11 countries together, and we all signed, and enough ratified.
We now have the CPTPP. America leaves, the game can still carry on. And in the same way, in the global trading system, America does not want to play by the rules anymore. But the other countries, if we can maintain the system as we trade with each other, I think that is important, and that would be very valuable to countries like Singapore. So we will work with other countries to try and make that happen. That is the first thing we can do.
The second thing we can do is to promote trade arrangements with like-minded partners. For example, we have the ASEAN group. We have an ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. The EU is a major partner, and we can do business with the EU. ASEAN can have an FTA with the EU, negotiate with them, expand the ink blot for free trade. Create more avenues for us to cooperate, win-win with one another. And Singapore is pushing for that. In fact, the ASEAN trade ministers met, and I think they will be working at this and working with other partners too.
The CPTPP, that is valuable too. That can also grow. UK joined the CPTPP. They need to – they had left the EU, they had no partners, no alternative. They came in but we welcomed them. But the EU, looking around for partners, says, 「How about EU and CPTPP, we get together? One in the Asia Pacific, including Canada and Mexico and Peru and Chile, and the other one in Europe. And we can get together for something valuable.」 The CPTPP members are keen, the European Commission President von der Leyen, she is keen. I hope that if we push that, we can get something. This is one of those situations where you want momentum. If you are sitting there doing nothing, something will happen to you. If you are standing up and pushing something, you may make more progress, you may make less progress, but you will make some progress and you will be better off than where you are. And this is an area where we need to make progress and Singapore will help to push.
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{nextpage}Thirdly, externally we need to do more with our ASEAN partners within ASEAN. We have an FTA as I said, but you can do a lot more. And I hope that with this additional impetus, we can do more of that. For example, Singapore and Malaysia we are talking about the Johor-Singapore SEZ. In Johor, companies can go there, they can have favourable terms and Singapore companies can prosper. Malaysian business will benefit, Malaysia will benefit, and foreign companies can be there and be in Singapore and therefore they also can benefit. And in the process, Singapore and Malaysia, we work closer together, that is good. When that happened, there were reports in the Indonesian newspapers to say, 「Well, Singapore and Malaysia are doing an SEZ, what is Singapore doing with Indonesia?」 And the answer is, we are doing things with Indonesia but I think there is a certain amount of competition, because they see us as being able to add value. And I hope that with this pressure within ASEAN, we will do more. So internationally, globally, with WTO – try and keep the system intact. Big partners between trading groups can come together and form bigger blocs. Within ASEAN, try to make ASEAN stronger, more relevant. And Singapore, we are small, but our trade is not small. I think we have some contribution to make.
Singapore’s response – Domestic
We have to respond to the new situation domestically. And I will say it in three ways. First in terms of practical support, second in terms of psychological preparation and third, politically. In terms of practical support, we need to help households, we need to help businesses, and we need to keep the economy growing. To help households, I think you know we have a lot of things. On cost of living certainly it is the first big item. Typical households this year would be getting around $4,000 in various forms of assistance. We are helping workers who are displaced, for example with the Jobseeker Support Scheme. We designed this expecting dislocation, expecting people to be displaced and this is what we will need, if in fact the tariffs dislocate supply chains and there are significant disruptions to our industries. Then the workers who are displaced will have the Jobseeker Support Scheme to give them support, to tide over the period when they are out of a job, looking for a new job, or training for a new job. We will have support for re-skilling. I talked about that earlier. Overall, I would say the budget package we have is enough for now, but if the situation gets a lot worse, we will do more and I can assure you, we are able to do more.
We have to help the businesses, too. We have set up the Economic Resilience Taskforce under DPM Gan Kim Yong in order to navigate the uncertainties; and to help businesses transform themselves. So it is not just to deal with immediate problems, it is also to deal with the longer term. Take this opportunity of the immediate challenge, to get ourselves prepared to be more competitive in the long term. NTUC is going to be part of this Taskforce, looking at how best to support workers through this.
Secondly, I think we need to be psychologically prepared. We need to be prepared for a more troubled world. You must know that bad weather is coming. But at the same time, we can take comfort knowing that other countries are also facing similar challenges, and Singapore is readier than most of them to deal with this challenge. Readier because we have the plans, we have the resolve, we have the experience, we have the resources, we have the unity. We are ready to do this, and we can do this together.
One of the important things which we must do if we are going to go through this together, is to look at fault lines, and stresses and strains which will build up in our society. Because if you want to go in and say, 「Let’s be united,」 it is not just wearing the same t-shirt. It is making sure we look after one another, take care of one another. Making sure that when fault lines come up, people who are having greater difficulties, people who may be left behind, people who are dislocated – they do not feel left out, they do not feel alone. They know that others care for them, Singapore cares for them. We will help you – you help yourself, we work at it together. We are in this together. I think that is a very important mindset which we must have during a crisis, going into a crisis, which we are able to do.
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{nextpage}It is a problem which in America has led to the pressures and the grievances and dissatisfaction, which have led the government to pursue all these very drastic policies. Because they have certain parts of America which have been left behind, industries all doing badly. They call it the Rust Belt. These are places where the industries have all done badly and the workers have no jobs, and populations are left out. The blue-collar workers in America, their jobs across the country have not done well, their incomes have not done well. Their lives have been blighted by drugs, by unemployment, by crime. Left behind, they voted for a drastic change and they want to break the system, they want a different world.
We must never allow our population or some parts of our population to feel like that. We are going to have stresses and strains too, because there will be retrenchments if there is a recession elsewhere, there will be dislocation if supply lines are interrupted. There is going to be dislocation also if technology comes and we are not prepared for it. If AI comes, if robotics come on a big scale and your jobs are taken away or transformed and you cannot do the new job, you are out of a job, it is no comfort to say that GDP has gone up, but my life is not better. So far, we have prevented that from happening in Singapore. I think in this situation, we must do double to make sure it does not happen.
If you can do all that – look after the households, look after the physical needs, make sure we psychologically prepared – then we can also address the political issue, which is to unite as one Singapore team, working closely with the government. And you need to have a good government, an effective government, a strong government, in order to take care of Singapore. And it has to be strong domestically, in order to be strong internationally.
Let me explain this. I think when you say on foreign policy, Singapore must speak with one voice, I think everybody will agree. Even the opposition agrees. And when you go overseas in a parliamentary delegation, people from different parties, we join the same parliamentary delegation, and we go representing Singapore. But the opposition goes one further. They say, well, overseas, we stand together. Domestically, let’s challenge. Now, that is a problem. Why is that a problem? I tell you, I have been attending international conferences for 20-something years – in fact, for 30, 40, years, but last 20 years at PM. Now, fortunately, PM Wong is doing it. But let me tell you my experience from these conferences. We meet each other regularly, because the conferences happen every year, every other year. This time I see you, maybe next time I see your successor. And in some countries, every time I go to a conference, I see a new PM. Sometimes, I see the PM, I look at his delegation, I see some of the faces there, I read the newspapers, I know that some of those people are hoping to be the next PM. And sometimes it turns out so. So when you meet each other, I assess you, you assess me. I will ask myself, 「I am talking to you now. Your Excellency, Prime Minister, yes, sir.」 Will you still be here in five years』 time? Will your policy still be here in five years』 time? Can I do business with you, commit and we do something, make a plan? To build a factory may take two, three years. To breakeven on the factory may take 10, 20 years. If you are not going to be here, can I make a deal? So I assess them. Do you think they assess me? Of course! They will see what is happening. They will have their embassies here writing reports. And if you have different views in Singapore, embassies say, well, this PM makes very good speeches, but actually he has a lot of political problems at home. When you meet them, you will be received with the courtesies, but I think they are not carrying the same weight, and you will not be able to defend and advance Singapore's interests in this state.
On the other hand, if they know you are on top of your situation at home, if they know you have strong support, good support, they know you are in touch with your population and you have got your domestic issues well under control, then they take you seriously. In fact, they will ask you, 「By the way, your healthcare system I hear is not bad, tell me how you do it.」 Or, it has happened to me once, we were discussing corruption. This was quite early in one of my first APEC meetings as PM and one of the big countries said to me, 「Singapore, tell us how you combat corruption.」 They know about us. They want to know how it works. Makes a big difference.
Therefore, to be effective internationally, to be strong at all, you have to be united domestically. And when people say, Singapore is a safe haven. In an uncertain world, in Singapore, you have security, you have safety. That is why people want to put family offices here. That is why people want to deposit money here. That is why people have confidence and put factories worth billions of dollars here, which take 20, 30 years to pay back, because of Singapore being a safe haven. And one big part of that safe haven, one big factor, is stable politics, good politics.
I know that many Singaporeans want more opposition and if you ask why, they will say, well, we would like a stronger check and balance on the PAP. And I would say the opposition has a role to play in our democratic system. It is here to stay. Opposition MPs are never going to disappear from Parliament. I accept this. That is the way democracies work. We started in a very unusual position with almost overwhelming PAP presence in Parliament, almost zero opposition. And now there is significant opposition, and I do not think that is ever going to...