李显龙拆解中美关税困局，新加坡能否成“避险港湾”？

What is different this time is that the US does not want MFN. They want to dismantle the system. They want to replace MFN with reciprocal tariffs, meaning I would not treat everybody equally. I want to treat each person, each partner, one-on-one. I deal with you, you deal with me. What you give me, I give you, at least in principle. When you bargain, of course, I would like you to give me a little bit more, and therefore, exploit America's bargaining power. Because they are big – one quarter of the world’s GDP, one seventh of total goods trade in the world. “Why treat everybody equally? They do not have the cards.” To borrow some famous words. Why not we treat this one-on-one, like arm wrestling. Let's see who has got more biceps, who has got a stronger arm, and we will see who is stronger. We will get more that way. It is a fundamentally different kind of world which the US is looking for and pushing for. And the approach is not win-win, but win-lose. In other words, the US wants to do well for themselves. They really do not mind whether the other countries do well for themselves. And President Trump recently is on record saying, “If we had made a really fair deal and a good deal for the United States, not a good deal for the others, this is America first. It is now America first.”

So this has very major implications for Singapore, very major implications for the world.

Why this is bad for the world

What does it mean for the world?

First, you are going to have different rules for different countries. Small countries will suffer because they have no bargaining power. But even big countries will not do well because there is going to be a lot of confusion, a lot of uncertainties, a lot of differences in the rules. And far fewer opportunities to trade, to invest, to do business together.

Second, the tariffs – whether they are equal or unequal – and in this case, they will become unequal – will choke off trade, will raise costs, and will dampen growth. In the 2000s, at the beginning of the millennium, the US tariffs were on average at about one percent. So basically, if you can sell to the US, your goods can enter the US almost duty-free. There are some exceptions like trucks – they charge a lot. Other things like sugar, where they are restricted, they are sensitive – they have farmers to protect – or ethanol. But across the board, one percent. They were the anchor of the global trading system. Now, already they are at about 10%, at a level which has not been there for 80 years. It is very high. It is higher than any other developed country.

And if in 90 days’ time, the rest of the reciprocal tariffs come in and they go to 30, 40, or sometimes nearly 50%, then the US tariffs will be even higher than they were before the war, during the Great Depression, when the US pushed the tariffs right up. And that worsened the Depression for the US and for the world. Furthermore, this is not the end of the story, because tariffs in the bundle so far have not counted two products – pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors may have been feeling happy for a short while, but America has made it very clear it is coming soon, akan datang. And that will potentially hit Singapore quite hard, because pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are a significant part of our economy. So that is from the immediate impact of the American tariffs.

But when other countries retaliate, then you must expect back and forth, tit-for-tat. It has happened with China. It will happen with other countries. Then it will cause a downward spiral and the impact will be even worse. Canada has already retaliated. The EU has also retaliated, quite carefully, because they are a bit fearful. They have done Harley-Davidson, because that is one of the iconic American products. But they have not put high tariffs on whiskey, bourbon. Why? Because the Americans say, “You do bourbon, I am going to hit French wine, German wine, champagne”. So both sides have held off for now – they can drink to that. But that is a small item. As the quarrel goes on, it will grow bigger, and the impact will be worse. And the Chinese side has gone right to the end. And with the other countries you can head in that direction too. And that will do a lot of harm.

未完待续,请点击[下一页]继续阅读