李显龙拆解中美关税困局，新加坡能否成“避险港湾”？

I think for Singapore, it means some very serious implications. This time is different, and we have to understand that, even as we think what we can do about it.

So, what can we do about it? I think there are two areas where you have to think about – one internationally and the other one domestically.

Singapore’s response – International

Internationally – I think we have to continue to support free trade, multilateralism, the WTO. To try to keep the system going and not have it collapse, even though the US is abandoning the rules. The US is the biggest economy. They come out, it has a significant impact on the rest of the world. But the rest of the world is still there, and if we can work together, I think we have a fair shot at keeping the system up.

I give you an example of how this can be done. You will have heard of the TPP – the Trans-Pacific Partnership. You do not need to know the details, but basically, 12 countries got together to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement. Singapore had some part to play, to get this process started right at the beginning. One of those countries was the US. In fact, President Obama was very active in pushing the negotiations and trying to get a deal on the TPP, and he succeeded. But the last step was to get the deal ratified in Congress, then America is in. He could not do that. He left it to his successor. He hoped that it would be Hillary. Hillary said, “No, I repudiate this”, although she was also involved. And anyway, Hillary lost, and Mr Trump won. And Mr Trump had said, “If I come in, I'm going to kill it on Day One”. When he was sworn in on the 20th of January, 2017, on day one, he killed the TPP. But fortunately, the TPP did not die, because there were still 11 members, other than the US. Japan was still there, and Mr Shinzo Abe was Prime Minister of Japan. He exercised leadership, he rallied the other countries, he renegotiated the deal so as to exclude all the parts where we had accommodated American interests, and saved the rest of the deal. And he got the other 11 countries together, and we all signed, and enough ratified.

We now have the CPTPP. America leaves, the game can still carry on. And in the same way, in the global trading system, America does not want to play by the rules anymore. But the other countries, if we can maintain the system as we trade with each other, I think that is important, and that would be very valuable to countries like Singapore. So we will work with other countries to try and make that happen. That is the first thing we can do.

The second thing we can do is to promote trade arrangements with like-minded partners. For example, we have the ASEAN group. We have an ASEAN Free Trade Agreement. The EU is a major partner, and we can do business with the EU. ASEAN can have an FTA with the EU, negotiate with them, expand the ink blot for free trade. Create more avenues for us to cooperate, win-win with one another. And Singapore is pushing for that. In fact, the ASEAN trade ministers met, and I think they will be working at this and working with other partners too.

The CPTPP, that is valuable too. That can also grow. UK joined the CPTPP. They need to – they had left the EU, they had no partners, no alternative. They came in but we welcomed them. But the EU, looking around for partners, says, “How about EU and CPTPP, we get together? One in the Asia Pacific, including Canada and Mexico and Peru and Chile, and the other one in Europe. And we can get together for something valuable.” The CPTPP members are keen, the European Commission President von der Leyen, she is keen. I hope that if we push that, we can get something. This is one of those situations where you want momentum. If you are sitting there doing nothing, something will happen to you. If you are standing up and pushing something, you may make more progress, you may make less progress, but you will make some progress and you will be better off than where you are. And this is an area where we need to make progress and Singapore will help to push.

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